Sam Trenholme's webpage
Support this website or listen to my music

Super Tuesday

 

March 4 2016

After the Super Tuesday results, I have revised my presidential election prediction.

==My prediction==

Clinton will win in the Trump vs. Clinton race on November 8, 2016.

I predict the same result we got in 2012: The Democrats will get 332 electoral votes, and the Republicans will get 206 electoral votes: http://www.270towin.com/maps/qjjxE

It’s not going to be an easy victory for her: Her favorability rating has gone down over the last month, and it’s going to take a lot of work on her part to win over middle of the road voters, as well as left-wing voters who will be disillusioned by Sanders’ losing.

Trump will attempt to paint her has someone beholden to Wall Street; Clinton’s campaign is already planning how they will win the general election this November.

==Sanders is toast==

It was expected that Clinton was going to win the states in the deep south. It was expected that Sanders was going to win the states in the flyover states with mostly white populations. However, Sanders needed to win more states in the northeast besides his home state Vermont, and he needed to get more votes in the southern states than he did.

While Sanders made up some of his lost votes in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Minnesota, it’s not enough for him to be able to catch up. Clinton will become the Democratic nominee for this election.

This gives the Democrats the best chance of winning the general on November 8: If Sanders got the nomination, the “socialist” label would kill him in the general election.

What I hope happens is that the young people supporting Bernie right now don’t give up when he loses the primary and hold on to their ideals. Maybe in 20 years we can have someone like him become president, and we can join the rest of the 1st world industrialized nations with regards to public health care and benefits.

It took nearly two decades for California to go from Proposition 187 to the Republicans having no political power at the state level, and the Republicans did every dirty trick to hold on to that power (most notably the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election).

==Head to Head polls==

The head to head polls showing Bernie doing better than Hillary are inaccurate, as described here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/
One case study: Bush lost 20 points between 1999 and 2000 as voters became more familiar with him.

==Trump: Winning with under 50%==

While Trump is only getting about 40% of the Republican vote, he is creaming all of the other Republican candidates. If either Rubio or Cruz, as well as Carson and Kasich, dropped out right now, Trump would not win the primary — but none of the current candidates is willing to give up their shot at the White House, even if it means Trump will secure the nomination with less than 50% support from Republicans.

Trump has hit his ceiling: About 45% of Republicans, at most, will vote for him. That’s enough to win the nomination.

To post a comment about this blog entry, send me an email. I may or may not post it, with or without editing.

Previous entry Next entry Blog index