==My second prediction==
My second prediction for the November 3 presidential election
This prediction is very similar to the prediction I made two months ago, the only difference being that I have some doubt that Wisconsin will flip to Biden on November 3.
Let’s look at this prediction in more detail.
Without Florida, Trump will need to repeat his 2016 performance in the Northern Rust Belt (PA/WI/MI/MN) to win, which looks unlikely.
So, let’s look at Florida’s polling. Right now, 538 claims that Biden has a 60% chance of getting Florida. I think they are being too conservative; I claim Biden has about an 80% chance because:
- The number of undecided voters is much lower in 2020 than it was with 2016 polls from this time; in late August of 2016, 13.1% of Florida voters were undecided, but right now, not only is Biden leading Trump by 3.7% in Florida, but also only 5.7% of voters are undecided.
- Older voters in Florida have seen the results of Trump’s poor handling of the Coronavirus epidemic throughout the summer, and the resulting 11,000+ deaths.
- Florida has just had, in a recent primary, the highest voter turnout seen in 18 years. Higher turnout usually benefits Democrats.
When I say “The Rust Belt”, I am talking about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Biden, if he gets Florida, needs only Pennsylvania to win the election; if he can not get Pennsylvania, he can also win with Michigan and Minnesota.
Biden has a considerable advantage in the rust belt compared to Clinton in 2016: He does not have the problem with losing voters who were disappointed in Sanders’s defeat which Clinton had. 2016 Sanders voters are behind Biden here in 2020, which is enough to win the entire northern rust belt.
The only way Trump can get the rust belt is by trying to make Biden responsible for the unrest caused by far-left protesters; indeed, Biden polling numbers have been going down in the rust belt after the Kenosha unrest. There is a reason that Biden is making sure voters know he condemns the riots.
I have released MaraDNS 3.5.0016; in this release, coLunacyDNS now has 100% test coverage.* I have fixed a couple of minor bugs; there was some incorrect behavior if processQuery returned bad data which I found and corrected in my testing.
MaraDNS can be downloaded on the MaraDNS web page as well as over at Sourceforge.
*Some sanity tests which protect coLunacyDNS from security threats which can not be readily reproduced are disabled in testing mode.
Did you know that all of my blog entries are available in a free to download eBook at https://www.samiam.org/blog/ebooks.html.