Romney 2.648% Tie .203% Obama 97.149%With these numbers, unless Obama is caught in bed with another woman between now and Tuesday (my birthday guys; I request, for my birthday this year, for everyone who is a US citizen to vote), he will win the presidency.
Let's look at Romney's chances of getting each of these states, as per Nate Silver's numbers:
Colorado 32.1% Florida 54.8% N. Carolina 79.6% Ohio 16.2% Virginia 33.0%As we can see, North Carolina will probably go for Romney; Florida is now essentially a flip of the coin (50% chance of going either way), albeit one that still slightly favors Romney, Colorado and Virginia are sliding out of reach (they were both a flip of the coin on October 15th, until Obama started to bounce back from his post-first-debate slump), and Ohio is, at best, a long shot.
For Romney to win at this point, he will have to pick up all five of these states. North Carolina (he probably will) and Florida (which has been favoring Romney, but may still go for Obama) are the easiest of these states for Romney to get. Colorado and Virginia can go either way. For Romney to get Colorado, he has to energize the conservative voters in Colorado Springs and other areas to go out and vote this coming Tuesday (again, my birthday). Likewise in Virginia.
Even if Romney gets all of North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, he still has to get Ohio to win the election. This is where things get really hairy for Romney. Romney did oppose Obama's auto bailout which saved the economy in Ohio, and it's going to be very difficult for him to get enough people to vote for him there.
If Romney fails to get any of these five states, he has very few paths to victory. My model shows that, without Ohio, Romney only has a 0.8% chance of winning the election; without both Florida and Virginia, he only has a 0.7% chance of winning this Tuesday. Colorado has fewer electoral votes; without it Romney has only a 1.7% chance of victory.
Right now, I would much rather be in Obama's shoes than in Romney's position.
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